covid tracking

i made a dumb personal covid tracker because i'm interested specifically in shifting data over a certain timeframe relative to other states shifting data. basically, i want to track wisconsin's post election outbreak myself rather than wait for someone to tell me how to do it and the best way i know how is to track the percentage of all covid cases in each state, relative to others, gain a substantial data set over the course of the next 3-4 weeks and analyze states that started in a similar timeframe. i'm sure i could get this data from somewhere, but by updating my tracker once a day and at the same time everyday, i'm hoping to see trends as they happen. so i'm tracking basically four numbers: number of cases by state, percentage of state population that has it, percentage of all covid cases are in said state, and the numerical change that represents daily.

but even doing that is dumb and useless, noted nate silver today. he's not necessarily wrong. his premise is that unless you factor in tests, the data is wrong, which is entirely fair and true. but i'm doing trying to track the virus, not just the numbers. so when i saw a friend on twitter say that her rn friend in pennsylvania is working in the er without protective equipment because they have none and shes resigned to the fact that she's going to get it, i can see the daily rise in cases there that correlates with that story. why do i need to see that? i don't at all. but something about the numbers is fascinating to me, even knowing they're massively under-represented. i also know that there's 39 icu beds in my home county of 160,000+ people, and most of those icu beds are empty. that correlates with wisconsin's data.

my biggest fear is that we're going to open this country back up entirely too early and with south korea now joining the list of countries who are seeing re-infection, we'll be fucked. every time a country notes they have re-infections, people scream about npr's report about false positives. i don't know enough to have an educated opinion. i just know that if multiple countries are seeing re-infections, that seems problematic.

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