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Election Day

Election day has come and gone and as we await final vote tallies from Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Nevada we contemplate a new slogan should Biden prevail on Friday, when nearly all of the votes are expected to be counted: ELECTION DAY TUESDAY, ERECTION DAY FRIDAY!

On Tuesday night, most of America went to bed with the understanding that we had no idea who would win the presidential election. Biden’s path to 270 seemed very narrow, running through Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, all states that voted Trump in 2016. He’s since won Wisconsin and Michigan while Pennsylvania remains close.

Biden was outperforming expectations in Arizona, so much so that Fox News and the Associated Press called Arizona for Biden late Tuesday night. Many, noted political scientist and pollster Nate Silver among them, believe that Arizona should not have been called and will not be surprised if Arizona ends up turning back red before the count is over. While mail-in votes nationally tend to overwhelmingly favor Biden, a long tradition of mail-in voting in Arizona, a traditionally red but more recently purple state, has seen Trump narrow the gap to a very uncomfortable lead for the Biden camp. The edge still goes to Biden, but it’s going to be very close. Ideally, though, for Biden, Arizona’s total will be irrelevant.

In Pennsylvania, the counting continues. Why? From CNN, “the Republican-controlled legislature refused to change state law to allow county election officials to start processing mail-in ballots until 7 a.m on Election Day. That left local election officials with mountains of absentee ballots to process and count on top of the in-person vote cast on Tuesday.” Biden continues to narrow his deficit there and very well could end up winning by a decent margin.

Because of this, Trump supporters have stormed vote counting facilities in both Pennsylvania and Arizona. In Pennsylvania they chant “stop the count” while in Arizona they chant “count the votes”. It’s not shocking that this is too complicated for them to understand. We’re dealing with math here and never before has a president so heavily relied on the poorly educated to vote them into the White House.

As Trump and the justice department threaten to send in armed officials to these counting sites, it’s become clear that his path to victory is very narrow. He needs to comeback in Arizona, hold onto his lead in Pennsylvania, and hold on in either Georgia or comeback in Nevada.

Biden’s path to victory is much simpler. The simplest among them is to complete the comeback in Pennsylvania. If Trump ends up carrying Pennsylvania, then Biden would need any two in the combination of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, or very longshot North Carolina.